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Should the situation descend into violence, expressions of concern by neighbours will harden to criticism.Īlready, there is little willingness in ASEAN to defend the generals. These examples suggest drawing a line where there is violence and widespread unrest. In contrast, in Thailand’s 2014 military coup, neighbours did not condemn the military’s action, which was largely non-violent. In 2007, the military regime in Yangon fired on civilian protesters and monks in what was called the Saffron Revolution, resulting in a number of deaths.ĪSEAN expressed its “revulsion”, a strong statement agreed by all. While there are differences of interpretation among the 10 members of the group, some examples suggest there is a threshold for regional response. While ASEAN largely adheres to a principle of non-interference, this is not a blank cheque Article 1:7 of the ASEAN Charter upholds human rights, democracy and rule of law as a purpose of the group. There is little basis to believe that all of Myanmar’s neighbours will join to impose sanctions. Yet they would be quite pointless in making a practical and positive contribution. Re-imposing sanctions is a tempting low-cost option for Western powers to assert a moral point. Japan’s presence has grown significantly but American and European investment remain marginal. Yet even a decade after, not much has materialised. One reason the Thein Sein administration initiated reforms and opened up the country was the desire for non-China options and to court the West. When Myanmar was sanctioned by the West, China’s influence grew to near-dominance. Even during the decades of sanctions, the generals got almost all they need and want, even lavish luxury items. Much of the country’s trade flows across broad and porous land borders with China and Thailand. Second, the generals do not fear sanctions.
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If major investors pull out, the fallout could be devastating, leading possibly to economic collapse. The impact today will be even harsher given the health and economic impacts of the pandemic, still far from under control. They were a major reason why so many of Myanmar’s near 55 million citizens are mired in poverty. Yet there are factors to consider before imposing even wider sanctions.įirst, such measures inflict collateral damage. Indeed, following international outrage over events in the Rakhine state, selective sanctions have already targeted some of the military, including General Min Aung Hlaing, the Commander-in-Chief who has now taken power. Given the current situation, calls are growing to re-impose sanctions. Despite reforms by the military-backed government of President Thein Sein in 2011, the US lifted the bulk of sanctions in 2016, only after the NLD won the 2015 elections. These sanctions choked off trade and investment and severely curtailed travel into and out of the country for decades. Sanctions were the instrument of choice by the United States and the European Union, after the generals refused to respect the vote of 1990, brutally put down street protests and detained the NLD leadership. The point and disappointment of sanctions Yet neither can the international community simply stand by and carry on with business as usual, as if nothing has happened. Responses need not however replay the past when the West used blanket sanctions and treated the country as a “pariah”. The situation is fluid and events can be fast-moving, even if the present seems stilled.Īlthough dressed up as a “State of Emergency” by the 2008 Constitution drafted by the military, the seizure of power seems a replay of past Tatmadaw coups.
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If crowds respond with protest in the street or by other forms of civil disobedience, this could provoke clamp downs. Underlying this is distrust and the lack of communication and compromise.Īnother huge domestic factor is the anxiety and frustration of Myanmar citizens who clearly voted for the NLD. The sweep of the 2020 elections by Ms Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League of Democracy (NLD) triggered the military response. In contrast, others including neighbouring China, Thailand and Cambodia consider this to be a domestic matter to be left to Myanmar.Ĭertainly, the main factors are domestic. The new Biden administration in the United States and the European Union (EU) are evaluating economic sanctions. The military intervention in Myanmar this week is leading many outsiders to consider an appropriate response.